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Accurate Predictions Ahead of Wall Street
"I think it's a lending bubble. Lending is out of control. The way some people finance their homes is crazy."
Brad Rundbaken.
Post and Courier
September 14, 2006
For the country, "We are not so much a housing bubble as a lending bubble," he said. "Many lenders are involved in high-risk financing scenarios with borrowers when they push high-risk loans and do not expect loan defaults when the market turns ugly," he said. "My main worry for the local real estate market here is the possibility of nationwide recession, which could drag down the U.S. real estate market even further."
Brad Rundbaken
Post and Courier
September 16, 2006
"As far as the economy goes I feel the national economy is going to get worse before it gets better. There are a couple of major problems out there that are looming and if kernels in a bag of popcorn represent risk then we are starting to see some kernels pop."
Brad Rundbaken
Q4 2006 Commentary- The Charleston Market Report
January 23, 2007
"I know many of you are feeling good because of the stock market reaction after the cut. This euphoria in the market will not last forever with some of the existing problems related to leverage and easy credit. The 50 bp rate cut will now put even more pressure on the US Dollar to the downside. In order for The Fed to ditch the inflation argument/fight and drop rates they must be analyzing some worrisome data on the economy and a potential recession. So now inflation is contained? BS!!!"
Brad Rundbaken
Trendocracy: The Bernanke Dollar Put and Interest Rate Call
September 21, 2007
Countrywide
Tomorrow is judgement day for Countrywide becauase they are releasing their earnings. I expect them to be brutal.
Brad Rundbaken
Trendocracy
October 25, 2007
Indy Mac Bancorp
"Another Anatomy of a Collapse? Time will tell.
Brad Rundbaken
Trendocracy
July 30, 2007
Predictions for 2008
* Oil will hit $125-$150 per barrell. Sell your Suburbans in Mt. Pleasant soccer moms!
Q4 2007 - The Charleston Market Report
January 20, 2008
2nd Quarter 2008
This website is dedicated to telling the truth about the most current local and national real estate and economic market conditions.
*** The Charleston Market Report is now providing monthly updates to Subscribers Only. If you would like to receive a monthly email on the latest local and national real estate and economic trends you will need to subscribe. The subscription is currently free and I keep all emails confidential.***
There is an old saying used by many successful investors in the stock market which states, “The trend is your friend.” These investors are successful because they do not strictly rely on fundamental analysis (PE Ratios, Book Value, Dividends, etc) to help them determine what to buy. They also rely on technical analysis, which involves utilizing the supply and demand of the market to help them make investment decisions.
Smart investors take the emotions out of their investments and allow the market to help them make rational decisions. The ability to know trends in the market gives you a tremendous advantage over the masses that are merely playing a high stakes investment game with no real data or strategy and instead rely strictly on emotion.
Just like the stock market, real estate markets have their own cycles which are influenced by local, regional, national and global economics and events. The first thing to understand about real estate is that people generally tend to “follow the crowd.” The second is that many people believe whatever the existing trend is, that trend will continue in the same manner in the future without changing. This type of thinking could cost you thousands of dollars in the real estate market if you do not educate yourself before you buy or sell your next property.
The purpose of this website is to provide statistics and a macro view on the latest and most up to date trends that are occuring in the Tri-County real estate market. What is unique about this website is that some of the leading indicator charts have 15+ years worth of local data and trends. These are primary trends and they illustrate past trends and what is currently happening in the Charleston residential housing market as a result of supply and demand dynamics. It is important to remember that real estate is local and what is happening in Miami, Atlanta or San Diego may not reflect current market conditions in Charleston.
Hey Bailout/Socialist Nation,
I hope everyone is enjoying the summer.
A couple of housekeeping items before we get into the nitty gritty world of the economy and real estate. Me and my partner (Web Guru) are working hard on the new website. I do not have a timetable of when we are going to be finished but it is exciting. I hope many of you come along for the "premium content" and I can assure you it will pay for itself. I should be real nervous right now about this venture but I am not. Confidence baby! I have already dealt with enough bubbles and recessions to last most a lifetime. You can call me “bubble boy” if you want. I have been in the financial/real estate world for the past 10 years and I am very confident in my abilities to provide accurate and truthful analysis amidst the smoke and mirrors in everyday life. I have many subscribers who have been with me since day one who can back me up on that statement and if you do not believe us then go read all of my past CMRs for the past two years. I am not hiding anything or I would be like Jim Cramer and have to explain myself every night about my inaccurate goofs and analysis. I encourage you to go back and read all my stuff and make a decision for yourself about the quality of this newsletter. Just remember what I wrote the past two years was while I was giving this report away for free. Just think how much better it gets when I start charging for it. :)
I would also appreciate any input from all of you for if you have suggestions about how we can make the website better. Please feel free to email me at brundbaken@comcast.net if you have some recommendations.
A quick note about the info and data on the CMR website. This information is protected by copyright laws. I have heard that some people are taking my data, cutting and pasting it, and are then putting their name on it for their own personal marketing. Please do not this. When you go to the website you will now see the charts with my name and website on them to try and prevent others from stealing this info. I would ask all of you to contact me if you come in contact with someone using my info/charts so I can handle it. If you want to use the charts for your work then you need to contact me and get permission.
The most recent issue of the Charleston Regional Business Journal has a good article called "Expected upswing in real estate market not here yet" on the local real estate conditions. The CMR was quoted a couple of times. I am always the guy in these articles who is the most bearish. I am not an optimist just merely a realist. You know the old saying, "What is is." I just do not sugarcoast anything because it is not my style. It was a well written article if you decide to read it.
In this issue I am going to give all of you a little peak at some new tools and analysis. There will be more when we go live with the new website but this will give you an idea of what we are building. Once we have refined the Charleston Market Report site I plan on implementing a separate site for investments. I plan on setting up some investment models for the (DIYs) Do It Yourselfers and have money managers for the high end clients. I will have to set up a Registered Investment Advisory Firm in order to do this but I like to do one thing at a time so the CMR is the first priority. Unlike Dr. Al Parish, I actually have securities licenses (7,65 and 63) that are parked right now so I will not be giving investment advice without a license. How that man got away with that crap for so long is a mystery to me!
Once both sites are built I would like to offer bundled or separate subscriptions for those interested. I am not sure about pricing yet. My main goal is to bridge real estate and investing with the risk management process I have spent so much time learning over the past ten years. So no matter whether you are involved in the real estate or the stock market you will feel comfortable with the fact that the investment process is designed for up, down and sideways markets. This is why trend analysis, relative strength, research, and risk/reward are so important. It does not matter what type of investment you are going to be involved in because you will immediately see that we have a game plan for any scenario. Just think if Wall Street had any idea what risk management was all about and we would not be in the mess we are in today! I know wishful thinking and trust me, those clowns will NOT learn their lesson because so many of them are a bunch of dysfunctional Egomaniacs.
By most accounts the market had peaked by the end of 2005. But the belief held by the vast majority of forecasters was that homeowners, homebuilders, and the mortgage industry would simply have to live without the dizzying double digit price increases that predominated during the prior decade. Most believed that after the largest and fastest increase in history, appreciation would just return to the traditional 2% to 3% annual rates. And although some distant rumblings from the subprime market could be heard in the second half of 2006, no one given much credibility on the national stage was predicting that the subprime problems would spread, or that the country faced serious declines in national home prices, rocketing defaults, rampant bankruptcy among lenders, or bailouts for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. A handful of others and me sounded the alarm in 2006 regarding the "Lending Bubble" but nobody listened. Some "so called experts" actually wrote editorials or took out ads in the Post & Courier claiming I was wrong and basicly an idiot. I think they all stand corrected in a major way. Don't you? No more editorials lately Mr. Lucey?
Please Watch and Get Outraged America!
The CMR has been discussing these issues for 2 years!
Contact your politician and let them know what you think about their economic policies.
Take A Load Off Fannie!
Since this is probably the last free quarterly CMR I have been thinking hard about what to write about. I think the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issue is one of the most important issues with regards to real estate and the economy that we will see in a long time. I feel a better name for these two fat, bloated, irresponsible and stupid red headed step children that were created by the US Government should be Phony Mae and Fraudy Mac. No I can not take credit for these nicknames.
I ask all of you reading this commentary why the United States government rewards fraud and predatory lending in the form of bailouts when there are no profits and rather huge losses among these financial companies. Where was the outrage when these companies were banking significant profits since 2000? When the oil companies demonstrate significant profits our government wants to tax their gains and investigate. Can you say HYPOCRICY! Government needs to let the capital markets remain free and quit manipulating them!
Here is a snapshot of these two rug rats.
Phoney Mae
Fraudy Mac
So I dedicate the following tune to you Fraudy Mae, Phony Mac and all of your enablers in Washington DC courtesy of the band The Weight from 1969. How convenient I play this video at the moment our fearless leaders in DC are passing the Housing Bailout Bill. Man, this band The Weight was psychic!
You must play while your read the article!
“Take a load off Fannie, take a load for free: Take a load off Fannie, and, and, and you can put the load right on me.”
That is exactly what the Demopublicans and Republicrats are doing right now. They take the load ie.bailout (it sounds like loan NOT load in the song) and put it right on you and me. How convenient. God bless America! The only reason the Housing Bailout Bill of 2008 gets passed is because of Fraudy Mae and Phony Mac. President Bush had to pull his veto threat on the bill because Congress attached the Phony and Fraudy Bailout to the Housing Bill. Bush and everyone else knows if these two go down it is depression and economic Armageddon.
Here is the truthful headline you will not see in the mainstream media:
Bush Caves: Will Sign Housing Bill That Won't Save Housing Market
Jonathan Kennedy | Jul 23, 08 8:53 AM
Bush has dropped his threat to veto the $25 billion housing deal that is about to sail through Congress. The bill is probably just a drop in the bucket, but it's designed to ease the pressure on consumers and bolster struggling GSEs Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).
Key Features:
- permits the government to buy shares in the two firms,
- overhauls regulatory oversight,
- allows the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages,
- and extends existing credit lines.
The White House has threatened to veto the bill as a result of a $4 billion program to allow local governments to buy foreclosed properties, but Bush has now dropped his opposition (probably because he doesn't want the White House stormed by an angry mob).
Source:www.clusterstock.com
Below are the highlights of Housing Bailout Bill written by Professor William Wheaton, Department of Economics, MIT. I want to give you a smart economist's view (I imagine he is smart if he teaches at MIT) since I am not an economist.
The bill, passed on 7/24/08 by both houses of Congress, contains a number of provisions designed to help prevent housing foreclosures, encourage housing sales and, in general, stimulate the housing market. In most respects, its specific measures actually offer remarkably small incentives, with complicated features that most homeowners or potential homeowners will likely chose to forego. On the other hand, its bailout and preservation of Fannie and Freddie are likely to be of historic importance. Let's examine each feature in detail.
- Loan restructuring. In this feature, homeowners whose mortgage payments have risen above 31% of their income can go to their lender and renegotiate their loan, lowering its magnitude to a reasonable range, given their current house value and income. In exchange for lower payments, however, the owner gives up at least 50% of the future appreciation in the house (at such time as it is sold). Given that the market is continuing to decline and that housing markets always mean-revert, the upside potential for a lender on this swap is actually quite attractive. Accountants will surely argue over how lenders can book the expected future appreciation, but at some point it will handsomely reward the lender for the current loan write-down.
My own view is that only owners who are deep underwater and who want desperately to stay in their current house will avail themselves of this swap feature. Notice also that it does not help owners with negative equity that are still able to afford their payments.
- First-time buyer tax credit. On the surface, the ability to take a tax credit of up to $7500 for buying a home seems to be just the shot in the arm that sagging sales need. That's true until you read the fine print and note that the $7500 has to be repaid in 15 annual installments. In effect it's a no-interest loan for 15 years. When looked at this way, the feature saves the buyer at most just a few hundred dollars a year—the annual value of the forgone interest. This seems like a very small amount to influence the decision of anxious new buyers waiting on the market's sideline.
- Expanded standard deduction for home owning. This is an interesting provision and actually might help stimulate home buying—but only for those owners who generally have very low income, little or no debt and few other deductions. The vast majority of owners opt to itemize and for them this provision has no impact.
- Reduced fees for Reverse Mortgages. This interesting feature could have the undesirable side effect of actually reducing the availability or supply of reverse mortgages. Alternatively, it will just lead to increases in the implicit interest rate built into these loan-annuities. In any case, I do not see the reverse mortgage market as providing any immediate solution to the current housing market crisis. In the longer term, removing any obstacles in the reverse mortgage market might well help retiring Americans live off their housing equity—at least what is left of it.
- Expanding Fannie and Freddie Loan limits. This again seems like a good provision of the legislation. (I disagree) It allows a larger number of loans to meet the definition of "conforming" and to access the assumed lower interest rates of such loan pools. Unfortunately it neglects how financial markets are likely to respond. Larger loans that are securitized into the conforming loan pool may well dilute the credit quality of the entire pool—if in fact they are more risky. Smart investors will easily be able to obtain data on (for example) average loan size and simply not pay as much for conforming pools with higher average loan size. Hence it might lower (a bit) rates for larger loans, but raise (a bit) rates for smaller loans.
- Fannie and Freddie Rescue. This one feature is hugely important—at least at this time in the housing market. Let me say that there is some uncertainty in academic research over how much the expansion of GSE-backed securitization has actually lowered mortgage interest rates in the last three decades. There seems to be little doubt however that it has expanded the flow of credit to more households, and eased underwriting. In the long run, if Fannie and Freddie were to fade away it is likely that private markets would at least partially take their place, with the financial system perhaps reverting a bit to the structure it had prior to 1980. In the short run, however, a default by Freddie and Fannie would throw mortgage markets into temporary turmoil. This in turn could drive the already stressed housing market into a state of depression. (I agree 100%)
What the current housing market needs is more sales, more transactions and a return of liquidity with normal moving/mobility. This, coupled with continued low new construction, will reduce the inventory of unsold units and allow prices to stabilize and then recover. The mortgage market turmoil that would result from a Fannie and Freddie default would make mortgages more difficult to obtain, reduce sales further, expand the unsold inventory and drive prices ever more downward. (I agree. Prices must come down in most areas to affordable ranges before sales will return to normal. Appreciation over the past 5+ years was based on artificial demand created by the lending industry's creative financing. Now home prices are reverting back to the mean.)
In times of financial crisis, governments around the world time and time again have used their central banks to provide liquidity and to help stabilize asset prices. I regard the F&F bailout as an extension of this policy. After housing market stability is achieved, we can all re-examine the question of whether and how the GSE might be better restructured. This is the one essential feature in a bill filled with many superfluous provisions. (The trillion dollar question is what is the solution? Only the shadow banking system knows! Reality is that there are no easy solutions to this mess.)
Mother of All Bailout Message
(From one of the few honest politicians with a clue.)
The trillion dollar bailout question is how did these bloated, crisis ridden, scandalous and inefficient pair of quasi government/public companies, that are so important to the global and domestic economy, produce such ridiculous losses and get bailed out?
Here are a couple of facts to chew on:
* Phony Mae and Fraudy Mac have spent $200 million on lobbying and campaign contributions.
* They have access to powerful lobbyists in Washington DC.
* Fannie Mae acquired twice as many homes through foreclosure in the first quarter as it sold, regulatory filings show.
* Unsold properties may weigh on the company's stock, which lost almost half its value since June 5, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing director of equity research at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.
* Late payments on the company's home loans, a harbinger of foreclosures, almost doubled in the past year.
* Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies, owned a record $6.9 billion of foreclosed homes on March 31, compared with $8.56 billion held by all 8,500 U.S. commercial banks and savings and loans. Foreclosed houses sell at an average discount of about 20 percent, according to economists Ethan Harris and Michelle Meyer at New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. At that rate, the two mortgage companies stand to lose $1.39 billion on the foreclosed houses they currently own.
Source:bloomberg.com
All I know is that there is no way that Phony and Fraudy get so large and mismanaged without the government’s help. The reality is that their combined liabilities are approximately $5 trillion, which is more than half the U.S. National Debt of $9 trillion. Can you say Holy Shizzle! I would imagine almost everyone in DC has had their hand in this cookie jar for years. Promote the growth of the housing industry via the mantra “Every American deserves a home” and earn some serious grease in the form of political contributions. That is how DC works. If I were lying than why in “The Big Guy in the Sky’s Name” would Congress propose FHA, Phony and Fraudy take on more risk during the worst housing recession since the Great Depression by proposing to do such things as increasing loan limits to $625,000? They want to do this in the segment of the housing industry which is the most overpriced with the most risk and most downside potential and then put their deflationary portfolios on the Fed’s balance sheet? It is sheer madness! The Fed should only accept safe assets not deflationary ones.
There is a reason the Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept. are now backing our dollars with junk paper from Phony and Fraudy. The reason that this dysfunctional fraternity of politicians and Wall Street financiers are pushing the bailout is that countries such as Japan, China and Russia hold a large portion of the Phony and Fraudy toxic debt. China clearly got bamboozled by the Wall Street shucksters and holds more Fraudy and Phony toxic debt than anyone in the world according to the NY Times Chart below. What is ironic is that China is supposedly a communist country and currently is acting more democratic than the United States which is supposed to be democratic and is acting more communist or socialist.
 What do you think happens if we piss these three countries off along with some others and let Phony and Fraudy fail? I bet they would start selling Treasuries like it is going out of style because they would lose faith in the US AAA credit rating and be a little upset about their investment in Phony and Fraudy. This scenario would cause bond prices to collapse which would mean interest rates would skyrocket. The housing and banking industry needs this to play out like they need more writedowns and inventory right now. Paulson, The Treasury Secretary looks scared to death right now and he should be. It's economic warfare going on right now and we are losing the battle.
So there you go. Phony Mae and Fraudy Mac have huge implications on the future direction of home prices and the economy regardless of what our fearless try to do. So much damage is already done. Since they were not proactive enough to fix it earlier they are all now boxed in without a reasonalble solution accept put the government in more debt and delay Judgement Day by borrowing time and of course more money. The result is that this is not a great banking environment when you have loans on your books that are highly leveraged assets which are losing value all over this country. When you add in the fact that the average American is tapped out and in debt, rates are going up, credit is less available and more expensive due to higher risk and home prices are still overpriced in many markets then we have some serious issues to deal with in Bailout Nation. How could I forget that the next president, Obama or McCain, are very weak on the economy. Just great huh?
One issue of concern is the national real inventory numbers that we actually know about.
* There were an estimated 129.4 million housing units in the United States in the first quarter 2008. Approximately 110.8 million housing units were occupied: 75.1 million by owners and 35.7 million by renters.
* Of the 2.1 million increase in total housing units, 1.1 million were occupied and 1.0 million were vacant units. Of the 1.0 million additional vacant units from last year, only 20.5 percent were for rent or for sale.
* The number of total vacant housing units, 18.6 million, was higher than the estimated number in first quarter 2007. Of these vacant housing units, 13.9 million were for year-round use and 4.7 million were for seasonal use. Approximately 4.1 million of the year-round vacant units were for rent, 2.3 million were for sale only, and the remaining 7.5 million units were vacant for a variety of other reasons.
*There are a number of interesting facts presented here. Only 4.7 million of the vacant dwellings were "seasonal," i.e. second-homes/cabins; 14 million homes are available right now for occupancy.
* A million new units sit empty, and only 20% are for sale. We can presume the builders/developers/lenders are hanging on to the other 800,000 empty new homes, hoping and praying that some miraculous turn-around in the housing market will enable them to sell a million vacant homes in the near future.
* Even as the "downturn" worsens, over a million new dwellings will be constructed and added to the inventory this year. So let's just round up and say there are (or soon will be) 20 million vacant residences in the U.S.
With an average household size of about 2.5 people, we have room for 50 million more citizens without building a single additional home. If we subtract the 5 million vacation homes, that leaves 15 million vacant dwellings
Source:oftowinds.com
The unfortunate consequence of the "Lending Bubble" is it creates tremendous opportunity in the REO, short sales and the foreclosure market at the expense of financially troubled homeowners. Some of the top real estate agents, with regards to volume, in Charleston are selling some sort of distressed property right now. The Charleston foreclosure market is growing and let's all hope it does not become as large as certain parts of California and Florida. I do not feel it will but I am worried about how much bigger it grows because there is a "shadow inventory" in Charleston that does not show up in the MLS stats. It takes a great deal of research to dig up the homes/condos not listed, under construction and are proposed construction. It is a very scary number in certain areas depending on the segment of the market you are dealing with. I am very concerned about the $500,000+ market because of the inventory and high jumbo loan rates. I am just not sure how many buyers can truly afford these homes by using normal fixed mortgage products in an inflationary and stricter lending environment. Time will tell.
There are very good deals out there if you look. I would highly recommend that if you come across a good deal in this market that you are certain is priced correctly to pull the trigger. I say this because I feel we are exiting what has been a 20 year cycle of low interest rates and we all know the impact interest rates have on the price and financing of homes. I plan on addressing and monitoring this in future issues.
I will conclude with a special index put together by Mike Morgan who works in Hurricane Housing Central in the sunny state of Florida.
(F x 4)/ H + I(3) = Not a Happy Ending
There are four "Fs" including fraud, fantasy, fiction and foreclosure. The first three are the foundation for the fourth "F." Enough said. We take this and divide by H + I, which represents Hype and Incompetence. Okay, so you don’t need a discussion about the four "F’s" or the Hype. But let me share a bit about just how severe the "I" factor is of total, absolute, and beyond any belief . . . Incompetence
Consulting Services with The CMR
If you want to combat the Incompetence Factor (Which is Rampant!) and need consulting buying, selling or a Market Analysis Study I am available. I DO NOT charge based on commission and work on a Fee Basis Only. I charge $250 per hour or you can purchase a block of 25 hours ($200 per hour) for $5000. Larger projects need to email me a Request for Proposal (RFP) to brundbaken@comcast.net and I can quote you a fee based on the job. If you end up buying a home with my 25 hours (As an example) and the commission is $20,000 I will turn over the difference in the commission minus what my firm takes. This means you would come out ahead $15,000 minus my firm's take if a transaction occurs. I work on the basis of time NOT commission. I am happy to work with other agents if they want or need it. I will only work with a certain number of clients at one time because my time is limited due to other projects. I will not use commission with my future Registered Investement Advisory Firm so why should I use it in Real Estate? I feel it is important to remain consistent with my clients on all consulting arrangements.
WARNING!
Trendocracy
In order to have an easier way to express my opinion and publish articles of interest of I have started a new blog called Trendocracy. This will allow me to open up the forum of discussion to other areas besides the local housing market I am familiar with such as the stock market, appraisals and financing. I have a very active mind and this new blog will allow me to express my opinion a little bit easier in the future. I will also be able to direct you to some very interesting websites and authors who help me get a better picture of the current trends in the market.
The website for the new blog is:
Please go take a look and I hope you enjoy it!
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Quarterly Commentary - The Charleston Market Report
Q4 2007- Appraisals, Risk, Renters Market, The Oversold Stock Market and Predictions for 2008
Q3 2007 - Old Charleston and Inflation (The Secret Tax)
Q2 2007 - "Mr. Gordon Gekko Economy, You Have Credit Cancer and It's Spreading."
Q1 2007 - What is your most important asset DEBT NATION?
Q4 2006 - Reality
Q3 2006- Sellers are from Mars and Buyers are from Venus
Monthly Commentary - The Charleston Market Report
June 2008 - Welcome Back, The "Denise Richards" Economy, Bond Prices, Black Gold
May 2008 - I am NOT an Economist, Bottom Callers, Fannie Mae and Oil
March 2008 - The Fed, Oil and An Anatomy of a Collapse: Bear Stearns
February 2008 - Predictiong Mortgage Rates and The Oversold Stock Market
December 2007 - Save What We Can!
November 2007 - Oh My Head I Don't Even Remember The Party Last Night. Ooh! Who Is This?
September 2007 - The Bernanke Dollar Put and Interest Rate Call
September 2007 - Happy Anniversary CMR and The Hard Landing
August 2007 - The "Ponzi" Market and Countrywide
July 2007 - Spring Housing Slump
June 2007 - The Cigar Factory
May 2007 - Sector Rotation in Real Estate
April 2007 - 5 Things to Stay Ahead of the Pack
March 2007 - Lenders NOT Girls Gone Wild
March 1, 2007 - Market Meltdown
The Charleston Market Report in the News
Live 5 News
The Post and Courier
The Charleston Regional Business Journal
Matrix - Interpreting the Real Estate Economy
The Holy City
"Nothin could be finer than livin in Carolina!"
Please feel free to send comments and/or suggestions to brundbaken@comcast.net. I hope this information helps!
brad
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